Arshia FARAJI TABRIZI; kambiz hojabre kiani; Abbas Memarnejad; Farhad. ghaffari
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through exchange rate, in this study, the effects ...
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The aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of exchange rate on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through exchange rate, in this study, the effects of positive and negative exchange rate shocks on Iran's GDP in the short and long term with nonlinear distributed autoregressive lags (NARDL) have been investigated in the period of 1991 to the fourth quarter of 2018 and the "Shine et al" model is the main basis of the research. For this purpose, using explanatory variables of liquidity volume, exchange rate, degree of openness of economy, gross domestic capital stock, labor and oil prices, through band test confirms the existence of a long-term asymmetric equilibrium relationship and also confirms the results of asymmetric relationship between real exchange rate and GDP. In the short term, the decrease in real exchange rate leads to an increase in GDP and an increase in the exchange rate has negative and significant effects on GDP, and in the long run, the severity of negative shocks has been more than positive shocks, this effect has been positive and asymmetric.
Ebrahim Nasirifar; Ebrahim Hojabr Kiani; Seyed Shamsodin Hossaini; Farhad Ghaffari
Abstract
The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric ...
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The basic metals industry is one of the most important national production industries, which includes approximately 20 percent of the industrial productions as well as 13 percent of the employment in Iran's industry. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run and asymmetric effects of positive and negative monetary shocks through monetary policy transmission channels that including exchange rates, lending and credit and interest rates on the production and employment of this industry, which evaluated by Non-linear Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model, seasonally since 1997 to 2018. The effects of monetary shocks are classified in to two groups: positive and negative shocks by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The outputs indicate that the monetary shocks are more effective on the production of basic metals industry than its employment in a long- run. Also effects of negative monetary shocks on the employment in this industry are more considerable than positive shocks during a short-run. In the end, the asymmetric effect of monetary shocks on the production of this industry is confirmed.
Economic Growth
mahnaz hoseinpur; kambiz hojabr kiani; fatemeh zandi; ali dehghani; khalil saeedi
Abstract
In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions ...
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In this paper, firstly, the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Iran (1980-2016) and MENA countries (2000-2016) is investigated using VAR and PVAR models. Further, the government expenditure multiplier are calculated and compared comparatively using the impulse response functions of each model. At the end, the effect of each factor is investigated determining the government expenditure multiplier in separate models for Iran and selected countries of the MENA for a better analysis and a closer investigation of the subject. According to the literature, results indicate that: Firstly, the shock of government expenditure in MENA selected countries and Iran, together, led to a relatively strong increase in economic growth. Secondly, in developing countries such as the countries of MENA region, especially in Iran, government- expenditure multipliers were smaller than one and close to zero. The government expenditure multiplier in MENA selected countries is more than Iran in short-term, but in the long run, the government expenditure mulitiplier, in Iran is larger than MENA selected countries. Thirdly, trade openness, public debt, and savings rate both in MENA and in Iran reduce the government expenditure multiplier, but unemployment and financial development increase the multiplier. Public debt has the most impact on the Iranian government expenditure multiplier and trade openness has the most impact in MENA expenditure multiplier.
Ragayeh Nazari; kambiz Hozhabr Kiani; Godratollah Emamverdi; Kambiz Peykarjoo
Abstract
Technology financing refers to the process of sponsoring research and development (R&D) activities in order to technologic move towards commercialization. Economic performance and the level of research and development expenditure in different countries can be affected by other countries. The present ...
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Technology financing refers to the process of sponsoring research and development (R&D) activities in order to technologic move towards commercialization. Economic performance and the level of research and development expenditure in different countries can be affected by other countries. The present study tries to identify the most suitable spatial model and compare supportive policies with the approach of the dynamic space panel model for the period (2005-2016) and for the selected European countries (OECD), Southeast Asia and the Central Asia. Based on the results of the Moran test and verification spatial models, spatial R&D self-correlation in trade and technology and two-way technology relations and uniform distribution for negative spatial self-dependence are confirmed. By confirmation of the model (SDM), the R&D supportive policies show internal and external implications. According to the results of the estimation of the internal and external impacts of SDM models, the positive and significant effects of financial incentives (indirect support) on R&D in OECD and South-East Asian countries are confirmed, but negative effects are seen in the Central Asian countries. Positive and significant internal and external impacts of exports of the industry with the highest technology on R&D in the countries of South East Asian countries are confirmed. Innovation index has a positive and significant effect on R&D in all three regions, but its importance coefficient is more in Southeast Asian countries.
Energy
Mohammad hassan ghazvinian; KAMBIZ HOZHABR KIANI; Ali Dehghani; Fatemeh Zandi; Khalil Saeedi
Abstract
Planning and policy making in the field of economic growth as one of the major macroeconomic goals requires special attention to the energy sector, the environment and its relation to production. Hence, in this paper, the effects of energy consumption shocks on carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth ...
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Planning and policy making in the field of economic growth as one of the major macroeconomic goals requires special attention to the energy sector, the environment and its relation to production. Hence, in this paper, the effects of energy consumption shocks on carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in selected countries of the MENA have been studied using the PVAR approach as well as Iran using the VAR method, and the results indicate that the energy shocks would initially lead to a relatively high increase and then a decrease in per capita GDP in the selected countries. The energy shock also initially increased carbon dioxide emissions and subsequently reduced pollution in subsequent periods and will move to the balance in long-term; also, in the Iranian economy, a shock to energy consumption first begans to sharply increase in economic growth after four periods, and eventually returns to a long-term equilibrium. Eventually, with a shock in total energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions are mildly increased and then begin to decrease from the third period. Total energy consumption, foreign direct investment, labor force, and capital stock have a direct and significant relationship with economic growth, but carbon dioxide emissions have a significant negative relationship in Iran's economy.
